The Arakan Army also known as the AA, has begun waging war on BGF outposts to be able to stand tall in Rakhine State at a time when peace talks have gained speed in a bid to end internal insurgency of 70 years.
The January 4 attack of the AA became the focus of the attention of most people and it, of course, was not a good result for the AA. The AA launched synchronized attack on four police outposts and seized BGF members. The act of the AA seemed to be a terrorist manner and its revolution was devalued. The worse point is that the police outposts launched attacks by the AA are the ones protecting the villages of Rakhine ethnics who are at risk of Bengali extreme terrorists.
The fallen BGF police who did not surrender are among Shan, Bama, Chin and Kayan ethnics. An allegation of Bama that occupied Rakhine State through chauvinism was not found.
“When this incident is analysed, nationality-narrow-minded AA attacked BGF police safeguarding innocent Rakhine ethnics. It is known to all that it is obvious the AA’s act is just like the elephant goes through the open field. I think it is a terrorist act. I hope all the people suppose like so. I hope this incident not to appear again. My younger brother died in action, I felt sorry but I was proud of it,” said the elder brother of police captain Sai Bo Han who lost life.
Some young Rakhine ethnics are active as to the way of patriotism. But there are many Rakhine ethnics who do not know the patriotism well.
Vice-Chairperson Aye Nu Sein of Rakhine National Party said it is required to recognize the policy that Rakhine people believe of their own although they do not know the way of patriotism. Unlikeness and criticism should not be in the political culture.
The men of much experience are concerned the clashes taking place in Rakhine State. Rakhine ethnics who dislike the launching war of the AA were seen in Sittwe, Ponnakyun, Kyauktaw and Buthidaung due to the growing number of IDPs and the dander of the AA. The worst thing is that warning letters attached with a bullet each were sent to the police outposts. The objective of the AA is highly questionable.
On January 1, bomb attack was launched on the motorcade of Rakhine Chief Minister Nyi Pu. On December 24, Khin Maung Than, a founder of the Arakan League for Democracy, was shot dead at his house. During September in 2018, a member of military security affairs was assassinated. These incidents increased worry and panic among the people.
“I don’t understand policy and dream of the AA. Now, some people are facing trouble as they attack. Some were dead in their attacks. They threaten the people that they will kill them if they do not accept their policy. If so, who will we have to rely on in case of further attack of the AA? We, Rakhine ethnic are here a few. When the Bengali terrorists attacked the police outposts previously, the AA was not present. Where had the AA been since then? I dislike the AA because they attacked the police outposts when there prevails rule of law,” said Maung Lay, a Buthidaung resident.
Those who are suspicious about the stance of the AA were also seen. Some reviewed that the AA had a link with the ARSA. According to the photo and data recently coming from Saw Mon Awng Facebook Account, some people pointed out that it was sure the AA had a link with the ARSA. Sharing of these photos and data have been found on the social networks.
According to the Facebook account of Saw Mon Awng, "The AA station is located by Sankho creek in Ukhiya District, Bangladesh. It is in the area of BP Nos. 50, 51 and 67 in Myanmar. The region is also known as Mawdok valley. For the AA, there are one large hillock and two smaller hillocks. Beside it are an ARSA camp and an RSO camp. The AA camp has a shooting range.
There are 400 AA troops, 300 ARSA troops and 120 RSO troops. In September, a photo was posted depicting an AA member giving his gun to an ARSA member for test-shooting. Ukhiya District is mostly inhabited by Bengalis and Kaman, all of whom are Muslims. Chief of District Police is Matahashan. AA has to pay 300 taka for holding a gun. Gun holding is allowed in exchange for money. RAB and an Indian officer from EBR-18 are also fearsome. The station is ruled by Lieutenant Colonel Lin Thit. It is called the western wing of AA. The jetty where money has to be paid when Nahon villagers from Buthidaung in Myanmar come to Ukhiya is the place controlled by Ukhiya police. Moreover, the photos posted on Facebook depict those climbing the border fence with the use of bamboo and watchers walking near the border fence.
Thayninga Institute for Strategic Studies Director Dr Naing Swe Oo has confirmed that most of the facts posted on that Facebook account are correct when compared with on-ground data. Studying photos with a map popping up on Facebook recently, the scene is on the side of Bangladesh. Another point is that when we look at the photos, AA soldiers are found climbing up the border fence. What we can say is that those from the other country are found coming to and going back from our country. When we enquired about the situation on ground, most of the facts posted online are correct. What we see is that AA troops crossed the border to attack the four police outposts. We got news about their infiltration. But we cannot know details about how they entered. They might have entered in disguise as civilians. I am almost sure that the camps we can see are in Bangladesh, said Dr Naing Swe Oo. During a press conference of the President Office on January 7, spokesperson U Zaw Htay said that AA is active in Rakhine State in coordination with ARSA insurgents and that they are jointly engaged in drug smuggling. He said AA and ARSA stations exist in Bangladesh.
The Bangladeshi Ministry of Foreign Affairs released a statement on January 9 dismissing the accusations. Regarding the accusations of the President Office’s spokesperson, there has been no official objection at a governmental level. The growing strength of AA insurgent group within a few years is food for thought in various ways. Analysts say that the AA’s financial strength and weaponry can rarely be found in other ethnic armed groups. In a short time, AA possesses high quality guns and provides better assistance to its troops. For those fighting for its policy, AA reportedly provides uniforms, food and money to the families of its members. Studying the situation in Buthidaung Township, AA receives little support in conflict areas. In those areas, Bengalis, Myo and Khami are the majority. A local elder living near Kyaungtaung police post said the marching of AA troops was usually mistaken for that of Myanmar's military columns.
Before January 4th, AA entered the Kywerai village in Tinmay village-tract near Kyaungtaung Police outpost and then they seized communication devices. Moreover, no one was allowed going outside and villagers were gathered collectively so also they brought rations in the village. However, one of the locals from Tinmay village said that AA members gave some money to the villagers for their ration. Some said that they [AA] were sufficient to spend the money and they also had good weapons.
“AA entered the village around 6pm of January 2nd and they enjoyed the dinner. Over 12am of January 3rd, they left from the village. On January 4th, they came back to the village and carried the rice bags. Some villagers run away. But, AA didn’t catch them and they told the villagers not to go outside and to stay at home. We heard that some got the money for the rice bags. We can’t inform the government’s army because AA seized our cell phones. Firstly, we thought that they[AA] were government’s military column. Our village is far from Kyaungtaung village by taking 45 minutes on foot. There has been police outpost in Kyaungtaung village. When government’s army shot them, they left from the village around 4pm. A villager was wounded,” said a local from Tinmay village-tract.
EMG interviewed above local on January 12th about the clashes. The interviewee replied that the villagers can’t leave from the village because landmine may be planted by AA.
At present, the village is in urgent need of food and the villagers are now eating after pounding the rice to polish. Although the military column said that they would clear the landmine but they didn’t arrive. So, the villagers can’t go to their farming job.
An entrepreneur from Sittwe Township reviewed that there has been job shortages in Rakhine State which is a least develop one. So, Arakan youths lost their goals and they became the terrorists. These facts encouraged the AA armed groups.
“As for civilians between 20 and 30 aged youths, they thought that they would be happy if the fighting would take place. After 1988, many people including me believed that the war would decide against the disputes. However, I had moved in a particular section of the wars and long-term revolution. As I passed through the war and revolution for many years ago, I don’t want the tragedy of the war. I didn’t want the fighting. I found that human body died due to the wars. Everybody loves their life. I would like to request the personal concerned how to implement the ceasefire. It is needed to think,” said Saw Mya Yarzar Lin from Arakan Liberation Party.
Due to the 70-year civil war between Tatmadaw and ethnic armed conflicts , the people have long been the victims under different views and policies. The respective groups are trying to seek the solution to the problems at the negotiation table. It needs to think about the fact that ego and interest of manipulators will be more than the interest of Rakhine ethnics as the AA is seeking the autonomy for Rakhine by taking up arms.
Rakhine State is located at the strategic location, where China’s Kyaukphyu deep seaport project and India’s Kaladan basin project. It needs to be well aware of the fact that Rakhine State may dwindle away ,and the armed group may get exploited due to the competitions and thwarts among the super powers.
Take a look at the fights created by the AA, there were many fights in Paletwa in Chin State in 2018. Chin ethnics suffered the consequence of it. The region where the fights were taking place is located on the route of Kaladan basin project jointly implemented by India-Myanmar. We need to think about the reason behind the fights.
The AA was formed in the KIA-controlled region. It has the military base camp in Laiza. The AA is the member of Northern Alliance which has the close relation with China.
According to Tun Myat Naing, the military chief of the AA, the fights aim to get the autonomy. The fact that the AA wants confederate.
In an interview with the Irrawaddy, Maj-Gen Tun Myat Naing said in fact, we don’t want to accept the decisions made by others. Confederation has autonomy. But it will have the common defence system. Nowadays, we can make cooperation in the market system and foreign affairs. Autonomy is the desire and aspiration of each races. We can try to achieve it.
As a matter of fact, the idea of marching towards the federal system in Myanmar is not still mature. Due to the word “federal”, there were disunity and civil wars in Myanmar. The word “Confederate” has more demands and desires than the word “Federal”.
The major distinct point is the central has no sovereign power sharing. It is a separate system. That is to say, confederate is the formation of countries which fully exercise their sovereign power. From there, countries collectively solve the problems after signing the contracts on defence, foreign affairs, economic and monetary affairs. The United States begun as a confederation at a time when it declared independence from the Great Britain. Under the leader ship of George Washington, it became the Confederate States of America.
Dr Naing Swe Oo said," The word confederate is the word first spoken by Tun Myat Naing in the interview. Analysis of that shows that it means an alliance of indepedent, sovereign nations. If we were to look at history, what is now the southern states of The United States of America seceeded under the banner of Confederate States of America in 1861. It only lasted around until 1865. The primary underlying issue behind the whole incident is the restrictions and abolishments of the slave trade. Now that the term Confederate has been brought up, we can take it to mean to build an independent autonomous nation. There are also news of the Arakan Dream 2020 going around in Rakhine State, which seems like propaganda. It is worrying whether these things are a timed effort by them. Both the Arakan Dream 2020 spreading around and the word Confederate being spoken by Tun Myat Naing is worrysome thing for the Union. The other thing to consider is the Rakhine State's parliament speaker is the Father-In-Law of Tun Myat Naing. It adds to the worry whether Rakhine will attempt to seceed. I surmised that, despite the interview claiming that the purpose was not to seceed, the usage of the term Confederate implies intentions to split away from the Union."
The current speaker of Rakhine State Parliament U San Kyaw Hla is an MP of the Arakan National Party representing Ponnakyun Constituency as well as the Father-In-Law to the insurgent group AA's lead figure Major General Tun Myat Naing.
Among Myanmar's political leaders, the term 'Federal' is given much more attention to rather than 'Confederate'. The federal system means that governments of states and regions share power across many different categories with the central Union Government. In other words, it is a union of free and autonomous regions, with matters relating to foreign policy and defence, to be decided by the central union government. The federal system, rooted in its member states and regions, would allow fair power sharing between the many different member federal states and regions.
Daw Saw Mya Yarzar Lin from the Arakan Liberation Party had refused to comment whether AA's Major General Tun Myat Naing's "confederate" is right or wrong. She instead said that everybody has their own desires.
"What I can say is that it is still best that we proceed step by step as per current situation. This is all I want to say. Everyone has their own opinion so I'd rather not say whether everyone's opinion is right or wrong. For example, Major General Tun Myat Naing's Confederation is his own opinion while on the other hand, someone else is having a different view on things. There definitely are better or worse line of thought than this but no matter what, everyone has their right to their opinions. But we will have take time to wait and see how things will play out," said Daw Saw Mya Yarzar Lin.
Many different ages had passed throughout Myanmar's history in an attempt to put out the fires of civil war but to no avail. Daw Saw Mya Yarzar Lin had claimed resolute in her decision that the way forward is to stick by the NCA process. She had also suggested that the NCA appeared as a result of dialogues starting in 2013 and as the NCA is the first of its kind in Myanmar's history, a review should be conducted if necessary.
Translated by WH+ST+KSM+MT+PC
