As the military consolidates its power amid widespread dissent and armed rebellion is spreading across the country, turmoil in Myanmar is likely to accelerate in 2022, experts said.

On the first anniversary of the February 1, 2021 takeover, nine panelists at a Jakarta Post, Thai PBS and Asia News Network webinar titled "Year Zero Plus One" tackled some critical questions on the world politics and internal issues that might set the course of events in Myanmar in 2022.

Bertil Lintner, a strategic analyst who has closely followed developments in Myanmar for the last 40 years, feared that, despite violent protests and a popular armed rebellion against the military, it would be tough to dislodge them from power.

He, however, said the movements to dislodge military were gaining steam across the country and armed groups like the People's Defense Force (PDF), Ethnic Armed Organisations (EAO) are causing major headache for the Tatmadaw (Myanmar military).

He also credited the opposition, specially PDF, for taking the fight to Myanmar's heartland for the first time since 1970s.

However, despite some attacks on the border areas and few blasts in Yangon and Mandalay, he said the fear of a civil war was still a farfetched idea at this point.

Besides, he said, PDF lacks weapons, coordination and a central command to be a serious threat to military.

Dr Sasa, NUG's Minister of International Cooperation, however, claimed that the Tatmadaw is losing grounds. "The military generals had not prepared for CRPH (Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw), no strategy to deal with PDF, NUG etc. They expected some protests but not the united forces against them."

Speaking on behalf of the Karen National Union, Saw Nimrod, Foreign Affairs Department's secretary, said KNU has been working closely with National Unity Government (shadow government) and the National Unity Consultative Council (NUCC) which is a coalition of elected MPs, EAOs, and other anti-regime groups.

Dr Sasa said the recently concluded People's Assembly brought together big armed organisations, political parties, MPs, civil societies.

"It shows that our unity has been the highest in the history of Myanmar."

The Assembly's goal consists of eradication of the military dictatorship, drafting of the Constitution of Myanmar based on the Federal Democratic principle of self-determination, and the union of all peoples regardless of race, religion, culture and ethnicity including the Rohingya.

NUG has moved on the legal front with a statement accepting the jurisdiction of the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to hear allegations that genocide against the Rohingya minority has been committed.

The previous government under Aung San Suu Kyi had filed preliminary objections to the charge brought by Gambia. It is unclear whether this would affect the legal process.

The hearing is due in The Hague on Feb 21, said Laetitia van den Assum, who was a member of the Anan Commission on Rakhine set up by Aung San Suu Kyi. She also worked as former Dutch ambassador to Thailand and Myanmar.

She added that the UN's Independent International Mechanism for Myanmar (IIMM) has been investing crimes since the coup. IIMM has received information from many sources indicating that some 1,000 deaths were crimes against humanity.

IIMM is based in Geneva and provide information to ICJ, International Criminal Court (ICC) and others.

NUG's Sasa lambasted Asean's failure to implement the five-point consensus for Myanmar. "There is no strategy to implement them. There is no inclusiveness in the engagement."

He ruled out any negotiation with the "killers" and would only discuss specific humanitarian activities.

Kobsak Chotikul, former Thai ambassador, said Asean has to admit that the current process is not working.

He called for a July deadline.  If there is no progress by then, he said: "we have to raise the ante …put up the 6th point by having the international community convening an international conference."

Participants should include Asean as well as Myanmar's neighbours – China, India, Bangladesh – all of which, he argued, can't hide behind "the burden of proximity".

Kobsak said the UN Secretary General António Guterres cannot outsource the crisis management to Asean or to the special envoy.

"The efforts should be coordinated by the secretary general himself. He should be in Myanmar himself," he added.

Laetitia echoed her support. She said the military is not yet prepared to come to the negotiation table but sanctions are starting to bite pointing to the departure of major oil companies last week from Myanmar.

"All efforts must be made to get Myanmar to the table," she added chiding the UN Security Council for failing to protect the people of Myanmar.

Lack of any diplomatic breakthrough and intensify fighting have results in influx of displace persons within Myanmar itself as well as across the borders – China, India, Bangladesh and Thailand.

Nipat Thonglek, former Thai Defense Permanent Secretary, reminded everyone of the plight of 80,000 refugees in nine camps in Thailand since 1988. He accused that the new rulers of Myanmar has made it more difficult for the refugees to return home.

KNU's Saw Nimrod said his organization has called in vain for "safe zone and no fly zone" to prevent the military government from targeting civilian areas and facilitate humanitarian corridors.

Panitan Wattanayagorn, chairman of the Thai Prime Minister's Security Advisory Committee, underlined Thailand's role in resolving the crisis in Myanmar. But he said his country can't make inroads if the Myanmar sides do not cooperate.

He said Thailand is interested in a meeting different parties participating in non-official capacity in exchanging some ideas, for example, to get humanitarian issues forward.

On China's role, Sasa said if Beijing "wants to end the coup today they have the power (to do so)".

But he said NUG also recognizes that with China's huge investments in Myanmar involving many companies the problems cannot be solved overnight.

Sasa stressed that democracy is the only way to stability in Myanmar.

"We need decisive action from China and talking to the military is not enough. The only way to achieve peace is to make the military return power to the people and get out of politics."

Lintner said China has a "very" long term strategic interest in Myanmar.

"Often I hear that China is not interested in the instability in Myanmar. I disagree. They want to see instability they can control and manage. If stability ensured with federal democracy and EAOs give up their weapons, China would be the first to lose foothold inside the country," she opined.

Lintner said arms sanctions will not hurt the Tatmadaw which can get a lot of weapons from Russia. "I wish I am wrong but it won't have any effect."

Kornelius Purba, Jakarta Post's Senior Editor, noted that Tatmadaw leader Gen Min Aung Hlaing would never bow to pressure or to carry out the Asean's 5-point consensus plan as it would spell his own end.

Lintner agreed, saying the ruling military is well aware of the atrocities they have carried out and the fear of retribution is what keeping the military united.

"I don't see them compromising. I hope I am wrong," she concluded.

Kyaw Win from London-based Myanmar Rights Network, however remained optimistic.

He said the people's determination remains strong, citing an example of families selling their jewelries to help the opposition group buy weapons to fight in the Rakhine State.

"The military will not stop the killings and atrocities. And the people will not give up too. The situation will worsen and we need to prepare for the worst."