Winter hotter this year due to El Niño

Published 8 October 2018

EMG

The cold season this year is likely to be hotter than previous years due to the El Niño weather and affects of global warming according to Dr. Kyaw Moe Oo, Director-General of Department of Meteorology and Hydrology.

“We expected that moderate El Niño weather may come this year. But, moderate may sometimes change into a strong El Niño. As a result, the cold season this year is likely to be hotter than previous year and it will be much hotter in summer,” said Dr. Kyaw Moe Oo.

A powerful El Niño that is probably the strongest on ever on record hit Myanmar in 2016 first midyear. The temperature during the summer was also at the heights the country has never seen before.

The possibility of the El Niño is at 70 percent. The peak of El Niño will be in November throughout December and will gradually fall, he continued.

An El Niño an irregularly recurring flow of unusually warm surface waters from the Pacific Ocean toward and along the western coast of South America that prevents upwelling of nutrient-rich cold deep water and that disrupts typical regional and global weather patterns. It is a climate cycle in the Pacific Ocean with a global impact on weather patterns. The cycle begins when warm water in the western tropical Pacific Ocean shifts eastward along the equator toward the coast of South America.

The El Niño phenomenon, which occurs every three to five years, is caused by warmer water in the eastern Pacific Ocean. This water is warmer because as trade winds lessen or reverse their direction, winds from the west push warm surface water to the east in the direction of the continent of South America.

According to Meteorologist Chit Kyaw, warm water in the mid of pacific Ocean may be hotter than +0.5 than the normal Sea Surface Temperature (SST), +1 means that it is a moderate El Niño and +1.5 is strong El Niño and +2 means powerful El Niño.

“Currently, it is around +0.7 and it is estimated that in December, possibility of El Niño is 80 percent. After December, it will fall but will again strengthen till April and May of 2019,” he continued.