Based on the conflicts in Rakhine State, Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) member countries and western countries are giving various kinds of pressure on Myanmar in forms of preventing foreign investments in Myanmar and prohibitions on the economy. Myanmar is now in facing a situation in which it is not easy to overcome these obstacles.

Solving the crisis in Rakhine State and inviting many foreign investments in Myanmar within a short amount of time is a feat perhaps only gods can create.  And at present, conflicts in Rakhine State look far from being solved due to Arakan Army (AA) and Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA)'s attacks with the end goal being that AA and ARSA desire territory of their own.

On the other hand, Myanmar has to once again, place great reliance on China just like the days of the military junta. Myanmar also must over this situation. 

OIC member countries and the West are vying for ARSA to have a stronghold in Rakhine State under the pretext of human rights. At the same time, China currently serves itself as the savior to Myanmar as it is a veto power nation in the UN as China firmly stands against the pressure of the West towards Myanmar. Myanmar has to find a way which can strategically survive from these conditions.

If we are to think strategy, Myanmar has to think of India because just like China, India is a heavily populated country and has a big project in Rakhine State just like China.

If Myanmar desire to balance China’s influence, which is one of the world's superpowers, it is no longer possible to borrow power from the West. So, Myanmar must realistically need to rely on India, Japan, Korea and the Asean countries.  Myanmar has ways to bridge China and India strategically and if we can use these methods successfully, India and China will mutually benefits from market where there are thousands of millions of people. Then only, these connections can control the efforts of the AA and ARSA.

What is the motive of the AA and the ARSA?

The Arakan Army (AA), born of the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), has grown in a short span of time. The AA’s base camp is located in Laiza and carries out military activities in Kachin, Rakhine, Shan and the Bangladesh border. Take a look at the fights in 2018, most fights occurred at Paletwa, Chin State. Chin ethnics fled their villages due to the fights. It is found that these fights occurred on the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project between India and Myanmar. It is questionable why the AA is creating the fights in order to hamper the Kaladan Project and who is providing funding to create the fights that may delay the project.

Although some Rakhine people support the AA which was set up in 2009, it is questionable how the AA gets millions of dollars to recruit soldiers and buy arms in a short period of time and who exactly is sponsoring for the AA.

It is also questionable why there is yet to be any conflict between the ARSA and the AA on the border line. It is questionable the AA created the fights with the Tatmadaw after making negotiations with the ARSA over territorial arrangements.

In an interview with MCN TV News, Former Lower House MP U Thein Nyunt pointed out that the AA carried out terrorist attacks on January 4 after making an alliance with the ARSA terrorist group.

The ARSA terrorist group attacked three police outposts in October, 2016 and 30 police outposts and a military base in August 2017, resulting in the deaths of hundreds of staff and people. Myanmar government has declared the ARSA a terrorist group. The AA is said to the organization which follows in the step of the ARSA as it carried out the attacks on police outposts which have a fewer number of police members and arms.

The last point is the seizures of narcotic drugs in Rakhine State were rampant last year. The people need to be aware of the facts such as the growth of AA, the record drug seizures in Rakhine State, the situation which amounts to creating the proxy war to damage India’s Kaladan Project and the AA’s use of millions of dollars to recruit soldiers and buy arms. It also needs to think about the fact that the source of income emerges from what kinds of agreement.

Kaladan Multimodal Transit Transport Project and Myanmar under India Act East Policy 

India invested US$ 450 million in Kaladan Multimodal Transit Transport Project connecting Rakhine State, Chin State and Northeast of India by means of land and water. It is the largest in the projects India had invested in external countries. Land and water project alongside Sittwe and Paletwa jetties started in 2008, but long delay took place. For that reason, India blamed Myanmar for long delay of ending the project.

The currently-conflicted Rakhine State is a strategic area. It is also highly beneficial to Bangladesh and India besides China. 

Among the projects situated in Rakhine State, Kaladan Multimodal Transit Transport Project is the largest one of India and it connects Kolkota in India with Sittwe in Rakhine State. It is also a two-way project of by land and by water connecting Paletwa and Kalewa where the AA’s ambush on Tatmadaw (government army) was mentioned with Mizoran Province in India. India has an opportunity of maintaining power balance between its project and OBOR. 

To be able to Great Dream do come true, Bangladesh facing population explosion and possessing narrow area as well as trying to extend its area into neighbouring countries has to rely on Myanmar for trade sector. China invested in transport and infrastructures projects and provided technical assistance as well. To be able to control over India, transport links are required to carry out trading activities between China and Bangladesh. The essential roads to help transport links will be built across Myanmar. For this, The BCIM platform is already located. However, the ARSA posing a threat to security facing the State has taken a stronghold in Myanmar. If an Islamic escape appeared on Myanmar-Bangladesh borderline, it might wake up the dream of secure and smooth trade. In this state, Bangladesh should prove an unacceptable sign to the AA and the ARSA. 

The BCIM platform is beneficial to Bangladesh. If a strategic way is thought for Myanmar, there is also an alternative. It is Ledo Road directly connecting India with China. 

The Ledo Road was an overland connection between India and China, built during World War II to enable the Western Allies to deliver supplies to China, to aid the war effort against Japan — as an alternative to the Burma Road became required, once that had been cut-off by the Japanese in 1942. Currently it can be a road capable of mutually seeking the markets of thousands of millions for China and India. On behalf of the failed Western markets because of the US, China can extend its market to India. India also has an opportunity of penetrating to the markets of thousands of millions in China. Myanmar can hope to extend its market to China and India, two big countries possessing 40 % of global population.   

According to India Act East Policy, Myanmar serves as a door to both East Asia and Southeast Asia. Thanks to its Kaladan project, India will be able to keep a power balance against China. Looking at the relations between India and Myanmar, the former is providing financial aid for the development of Rakhine State and some military weapons. In this context, we will hope that India will support the Myanmar government and military as it does not want to see clashes in the project area. 

Is AA unwilling to see completion of the Kaladan project? 

Myanmar has responsibility to safeguard China's gas pipeline project as well as India's Kaladan project. Not only those country countries but also other countries such as Korea, Japan, the US, Britain and France investing in Myanmar are liable for protection. On behalf of the Myanmar government, the military needs to protect the foreign investors. 

The military released statements over clashes with AA in 2018. In the statements, the military said AA insurgents frequently carried out attacks with intent to disrupt the implementation of the Kaladan project and border fencing and cause tripartite border instability. 

The military has announced a four-month cessation of operations in the areas of Northern Command, North East Command, Eastern Command, Central East Command and Triangle Region Command in order to discuss and coordinate with the ethnic armed groups. However, Western Command was excluded because of the existence of ARSA, the military pointed out. Meanwhile, there have been clashes between the military and AA which was previously active in Paletwa in Rakhine State forcing thousands of local people to flee their homes. What's more, like ARSA terrorists, AA launched attacks on four regional police outposts shouldering security duties to protect the Rakhine people from ARSA attacks.  

There was no need for the AA, if they truly stand for the Rakhine people, to attack the police outposts supposed to guard against Bengali terror elements of ARSA or to disrupt the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project. The AA, by attacking so, has created a Proxy War that saw deaths of 13 policemen while injuring nine others. It begs the question as to how different armed groups are cooperating and which countries are funding them.

A brief analysis of the time window behind AA attacks reveal that it had come after the Indian President Ram Nath Kovind had visited Myanmar and signed the MOU in regards to the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project, other trade routes and deals.

To summarize, the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project is something that will be hugely beneficial to impoverished states such as Rakhine and Chin and as long as the AA continues their destruction, the military will be repeatedly clashing with them. Any misconception that the AA is doing this out of concern for the Rakhine and Chin ethnics and not the countries that have been funding the AA to disrupt the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project, should be thrown out of the window.

On the other hand, Myanmar government needs to a grand strategic policy that will assist in curbing a certain amount of dependence on China for protection from The US and OIC countries, which will in turn decrease Chinese influence in Myanmar affairs, by building better relations with countries such as Japan, Korea and Asean nations. 

Rakhine State is the future of Myanmar. It is also the main route for China’s Belt and Road Initiative. There exists the US that is keeping a careful eye on China, India that is keeping tabs on China on the influence over Bangladesh and ARSA and OIC countries that are striving towards secession. 

It is extremely crucial that the people knows and understand this complex situation and the critical importance for Myanmar to establish a comprehensively strategic relations with India and China as well as the undeniable fact that there is no reasoning agreeable for the presence of the AA and ARSA that will constantly continue to create wars in the region.