After the Third Anglo-Burmese War in 1885, the entire country came under British rule. Prior to this conflict, the British had already occupied lower Burma and were poised to extend their control to upper Burma. In 1885, they launched the third Anglo-Burmese war of invasion and occupied the entire country under the pretext of punishing the Burmese king to the Bombay Burma Timber Company for the theft of teak logs.
The British Timber Company extracted over 80,000 teak logs from Burma but accounted for only a little more than 30,000 of them. In response, the Burmese government imposed a fine of over 2.3 million kyats on the Bombay Burma Company. However, to avoid conflict with the British, Burma did not demand more than the 2.3 million kyats in compensation. Despite this, the British sent Colonel Sladen, who presented a list of five ultimatum demands to the Burmese government, insisting on a response within seven days.
At the time, Burma was in a weakened state. Despite agreeing to the first four points, which were unjustly imposed by the British, the British remained dissatisfied and advanced to the border between Upper and Lower Burma. On November 14, 1885, the British army, which had been strategically prepared, began their assault on the Sit Aung Khan fortifications, marking the start of the Third Anglo-Burmese War. The British forces, heavily armed, advanced along the Ayeyawady River, attacking and capturing several Burmese forts. Just fifteen days after the war began, following the Burmese surrender on November 29, 1885, King Thibaw and Queen Supayalat were taken to Ratnagiri, bringing the Third Anglo-Burmese War to an end. From that point on, Myanmar fell under British colonial rule, which lasted more than 60 years until 1948.
Currently, the three northern alliances, including the Chinese-backed MNDAA, have launched attacks on the Northeastern Command headquarters in Lashio, as well as in Kyaukme, Nawnghkio, and Mogok cities. While their threat to Mandalay is not directly linked to the British colonization of Myanmar, it is evident that the ongoing proxy war in the northeast is gradually jeopardizing Myanmar’s sovereignty and independence.
As the northern alliances wage war and seize territory, preparations for China’s planned Haigeng talks in Kunming are underway today (August 8). With Myanmar’s sovereignty hanging in the balance, China’s special representative, Deng Xijun, made a sudden visit to Myanmar on August 8, coinciding with Myanmar government representatives’ refusal to attend the Haigeng talks. Deng Xijun, who replaced former representative Sun Guoxiang, first visited Myanmar on December 29, 2022. Since then, he has returned several times, including visits on March 6, 2023, July 27, 2023, September 18, 2023, October 15, 2023, April 1, 2024, and June 18, 2024, where he met with key figures in the Myanmar government, including the Chairman of the State Administrative Council (SAC) and the Minister for Foreign Affairs. Notably, on October 15, 2023, Deng Xijun attended the National Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) annual event in Nay Pyi Taw. Just over 10 days after this event, the first phase of Operation 1027 was launched.
After that, there was a lot of monitoring and observation on the meetings between Deng Xijun and the Myanmar government, and after he was appointed as a representative, the fighting in Myanmar became widespread, and the attacks of the three northern alliances and their allies became a serious concern for the country's independence and sovereignty.
After dubbing the second phase of Operation 1027, the attack by the Chinese-backed MNDAA and its allies has reached a stage where Mandalay, the second economic capital of Myanmar, has become completely blocked.
In such a scenario, it is unclear what kind of declarations or ultimatums might emerge, reminiscent of Colonel Sladen's visit to Burma. Alongside rumors of potential attacks by the three northern alliances and armed groups on cities like Mandalay and Nay Pyi Taw, the Chinese-backed Northern Alliance is expanding its military presence in the southern and eastern regions of Shan State. There are indications that the MNDAA might attempt to occupy areas from Hsipaw to southern Shan State, while the Mongla and Wa groups could assert control over the eastern regions. Meanwhile, the RCSS, a Shan armed group with strong ties to Thailand, is making military preparations. Given these developments, it is evident that the conflict in Myanmar could spill over into Thailand, affecting the Thailand-Myanmar border.
In Bangladesh, which borders Myanmar’s western Rakhine State, the fall of the Chinese-backed Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and the formation of a new government could create challenges for the Chinese-supported Arakan Army (AA). In such a situation, the AA might find itself increasingly at odds with the security forces of India and Bangladesh in western Myanmar.
Overall, there is a significant risk that Myanmar could become the stage for a proxy war among powerful regional countries, which could ultimately threaten its independence.
Reflecting on the Second World War, Burma served as a significant battleground for major powers like Japan and Britain, suffering extensive damage as a result. Today, Myanmar faces a similar threat of becoming the epicenter of conflict in Asia, potentially leading to a Third World War. If such a scenario unfolds, Myanmar risks losing its sovereignty and independence, subjecting its people to immense suffering. An estimated 10 to 15 million people could be forced to flee as war refugees, impacting the entire region. The escalation of conflict involving Chinese-backed armed groups threatens not only Myanmar's sovereignty but also the stability of the entire region. Neighboring countries such as India, Bangladesh, Thailand, and Laos will not tolerate the spread of war and the associated security threats. China must consider Myanmar’s situation with an eye toward its own security as well as that of neighboring nations. Otherwise, if Western powers intervene in Myanmar’s conflicts, the country could become the war front of Asia.
Given the current circumstances, the stability of Myanmar will largely depend on the decisions made by the State Administrative Council, other relevant organizations, and particularly China. It is crucial for China to reassess its stance on Myanmar and take proactive measures to stabilize the country by opposing imperialism and proxy wars, which are hallmarks of neocolonialism. Instead of merely pressuring the Myanmar government to halt the conflict, China should encourage armed groups to retreat to their designated areas and collaborate with the international community to achieve a genuine cessation of hostilities, the restoration of democracy, and the establishment of federalism.
China plays a pivotal role in shaping both regional stability and the future of Myanmar. The Daily Eleven newspaper underscores the critical importance of inclusive dialogue that brings together all key stakeholders, including China, India, Thailand, other ASEAN nations, the United States, and all relevant political actors within Myanmar. These comprehensive discussions should focus on expediting the return to democracy and the establishment of a genuine federal union.
