The World Bank says Myanmar’s economy could see around 3% GDP growth in FY2026/27 if support for earthquake recovery and assistance to the hardest-hit regions continues. Current projections show that GDP for the fiscal year ending March 2026 will still shrink by about 0.2%, an improvement from the earlier estimate of –2.5%, reflecting a slight recovery.
According to the latest Myanmar Economic Monitor, the strong earthquake in March, ongoing internal conflict, and structural challenges in business operations continue to weigh heavily on economic prospects. However, the report notes some signs of stabilization. Industrial activity in October 2025 was higher than in April, and the kyat—after a sharp drop last year—has strengthened gradually throughout 2025. Although inflation has eased, prices remain high and households still struggle with income and spending pressures. Trade flows increased in the six months before September 2025, partly due to reduced logistical disruptions after the earthquake.
World Bank Regional Director Melinda Good said signs of early recovery are encouraging, but Myanmar still faces major obstacles, including large financing needs for reconstruction, conflict-related uncertainty, security risks, and ongoing electricity shortages.
The report warns that inflation is expected to remain above 20%, adding continued pressure on living costs. Reconstruction spending will also keep fiscal challenges elevated. The budget deficit could reach 5% of GDP in FY2026/27, while public debt is projected to stay above 60% of GDP, with domestic borrowing continuing to rise.
