It is reported by local news agencies that the AA (Arakan Army), which is engaged in battles in Rakhine State, seized Kyeintali town in Gwa Township, close to Thandwe Township, on August 14. They are now continuing their attack on Gwa and, through this route, may penetrate and attack some townships in the Ayeyawady Region and coastal areas, preparing to expand their military operations to pressure Yangon.

Although the AA has not officially announced the capture of Gwa town, ground reports indicate that the AA is working to gain control of Gwa. The fighting is expected to intensify, and the military has reportedly established a defensive position at the Yadana Myaing Bridge on the Kyeintali-Gwa road, according to some local observers in Rakhine State.

The AA reportedly launched attacks on two military camps and the main police station in Kyeintali starting on August 12. Heavy fighting occurred in wards 1 and 3, and some residents were trapped in the crossfire.

Kyeiktali town has three wards, with over a thousand households and a population of around ten thousand people. It is reported that most residents fled to safety before the fighting began.

"The fighting in Kyeintali was intense. The AA is preparing to capture Gwa. The military is also carrying out both naval attacks and airstrikes, and most of the locals in Kyeintali have already fled to avoid the fighting. There's no way to stay there. It looks like the fighting in Gwa will also escalate," said a Rakhine resident who had fled to Sittwe.

Additionally, it is reported that the military is conducting airstrikes against the AA forces entering Kyeintali.

The AA is likely to continue attacking towards the Ayeyawady Region, including the Ngathaingchaung, Thabaung, and coastal areas, which might lead to further infiltrations. Local residents of Thabaung expressed concerns about the need for stricter security checks.

There are also social media posts suggesting that among the refugees fleeing from Gwa towards the Ayeyawady Region and Yangon, there may be AA members, necessitating careful checks to determine if they are genuine refugees.

A resident from Ngathaingchaung said, "In this political conflict, Ayeyawady Region has so far been peaceful, and everyone was going about their business. But now, with the fighting moving from Rakhine to our side, we are worried. Although they can't just enter immediately, there might already be infiltrations, so it's recommended that relevant authorities conduct strict checks."

It is reported that the AA has captured towns such as Mrauk-U, Minbya, Myebon, Ponnagyun, Rathedaung, Buthidaung, Kyauktaw and Thandwe in Rakhine State. Although the AA has not yet taken control of areas like Taungup, Kyaukpyu, and Ann, heavy fighting could break out at any time.

Meanwhile, the AA appears to be cautious in its operations in Kyaukpyu town, where China's deep-sea port project is located, suggesting a calculated approach in this area.

Although the AA has not attacked the Northern Command in Ann, the main military headquarters of Rakhine State, it has cut off and maintained control of the Ann-Minbu road connecting Ann in Rakhine State with Magway Region, leading to frequent skirmishes between the AA and military columns on this route.

The AA is reportedly advancing toward Ngaphe township in Magway Region, bordering Rakhine State, with ongoing military operations in the area.

Similarly, the AA has captured Paletwa in Chin State and is collaborating with some Chin armed groups in towns within Chin State, leading to resistance and criticism from other Chin armed groups and local communities.

Following the AA's capture of Kyeintali town, there is a likelihood that they will continue their attack on Gwa town, just 44 miles away.

If they succeed in taking Gwa, they might advance towards Ngathaingchaung and Thabaung in the Ayeyawady Region. This could pose a significant threat to the Ayeyawady Region, which is considered the rice bowl of Myanmar, leading to potential attacks on the region's economic hub, Yangon, according to military analysts.

"AA has cut off Ann but did not attack it directly. Their target now seems to be Gwa. Both for AA and the remaining civilians, access to food supplies is crucial. It's said that the AA is using various methods to obtain food supplies from the Ayeyawady Region. Although they are fighting to secure a route to Bangladesh in Maungdaw, they are facing many challenges. Additionally, Bangladesh has been re-importing food supplies from Myanmar due to shortages on their side. That's why the AA is attacking Chin State and the Magway route, cutting off the Ann-Minbu road to secure access to Magway. Now they are continuing to target the Ayeyawady route. If they stop at Gwa, there won't be a problem. But if they proceed towards Ayeyarwady, then even Yangon, Myanmar's economic capital, could be threatened. This needs to be closely monitored. It doesn't seem like a major battle will happen in Kyaukpyu due to China's project there. The AA appears to be cautious in Kyaukpyu, focusing on other regions first before potentially negotiating with the military," said a military analyst.

Currently, the AA is reported to have captured Buthidaung town and several border guard posts in Maungdaw township. However, the ground situation in Maungdaw town is unclear, with local sources indicating that the military is still holding on.

The AA's military operations in Rakhine have faced criticism, particularly regarding the reported killings of Bengalis (originally referred to as Rohingya) during the fighting in Buthidaung and Maungdaw, drawing international scrutiny and criticism.

There have been reports of drone attacks on Bengalis (referred to as Rohingya in the original text) fleeing from Myanmar due to the conflict at the Bangladesh border, resulting in dozens of casualties, including families and children. These reports were supported by eyewitnesses and highlighted by the Indonesia-based Jakarta Post news agency.

The incident on August 5 involved a drone strike on families waiting to cross the Bangladesh border, resulting in heavy casualties. Eyewitnesses, activists, and a diplomat confirmed this, making it one of the deadliest attacks in recent Rakhine fighting. The casualties included a pregnant woman and her two-year-old daughter. While three eyewitnesses pointed to the AA as responsible for the attack on August 9, the AA has denied the allegations.

Additionally, the AA has been accused by Rohingya activists and international organizations, including the United Nations, of burning down around 5,000 Bengali houses and killing approximately 100 people in Buthidaung, though the AA has also denied these allegations.

The NUG (National Unity Government) has reportedly held discussions with the AA regarding the Buthidaung and Maungdaw fighting and the situation concerning the Rohingya. The NUG has expressed its intention to resolve the issue in collaboration with the AA, stating that they aim to build a future nation together.

After capturing ten townships in Rakhine and Paletwa, the AA has announced its intention to continue its offensive to capture Maungdaw, Sittwe, Ann, Thandwe, Kyaukphyu, Taungup, Manaung, and Gwa townships.

Currently, fighting is ongoing in Gwa township, and military analysts suggest that the AA might push further into the Ayeyawady Region, threatening Yangon, the country's economic hub.