In recent days, there was a hullabaloo among the public on the suspended Myitsone Dam project after the statement issued by the Chinese embassy in Myanmar. 

The Chinese embassy’s statement issued on January 13 mainly focused on the Myitsone Dam project already suspended for seven years, which is one of the obstacles in smoothening out cooperation between China and Myanmar. 

On 28 and 29 December 2018, Mr. Hong Liang, Chinese Ambassador to Myanmar, visited Myitkyina and met with leaders of political parties and social organizations in Kachin State. 

During his tour to Kachin State, they exchanged views on four sectors—the peace process, the resettlement of Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs), anti-drug campaign and economic and trade cooperation. 

In regard to economic and trade cooperation, Ambassador Hong Liang said that currently one of the difficulties hindering China-Myanmar cooperation is the issue of Myitsone Hydropower project, which has been put on hold for seven years. If this issue fails to be resolved after a long delay, it will seriously hurt the confidence of Chinese entrepreneurs investing in Myanmar.

In addition to that, Myanmar’s economic and social development and the building of China-Myanmar Economic Corridor require sufficient electricity supply. To this end, China and Myanmar are in close consultation on the issue of Myitsone Hydropower project to find out a proper solution acceptable to both sides as soon as possible. In this connection, support from the people of Kachin State would be highly valued, the ambassador added. 

Leaders of political parties and social organizations in Kachin State also said that the local people of Kachin State do not oppose the Myitsone hydropower project; It is that some outside individuals and social organizations that oppose the project, the statement said. 

Ambassador Hong Liang appreciates the positive attitude of political parties and social organizations in Kachin State on the Myitsone project and hopes that they express their positive attitude on the project to the union government, the statement added.

During his tour to Kachin State, the Chinese Ambassador met with Chairman of the Kachin State Democracy Party Manam Tu Ja, Chairman of the Unity and Democracy Party of Kachin State U Hkyet Hting Nan, Chairman of the Kachin Democratic Party Gumgrawng Awng Hkam, Chairman of the Lisu National Development Party U Shwe Minn, Chairman of the Shan Ethnic Affairs Society (Northern Myanmar) U Sai San Wae and Chairman of the Kachin Baptist Convention Dr. Hkalam Samson.

“In the meeting with the Chinese Ambassador, we discussed the needs for development in Kachin State. But it had nothing to do with Myitsone Project”, said Chairman of the Kachin Baptist Convention Dr. Hkalam Samson.

“The official remonstration against Myitsone project is the KBC’s decision. It has been seven years that the protest against the Myitsone project when the Chinese embassy visited the region and held meetings about the Myitsone project. But the KBC did not lead these activities. I don’t know how they misunderstand what I said,” Dr. Hkalam Samson said. 

Nobody wants the construction of Myitsone Dam at the confluence of Maykha and Maylikha Rivers, which may lead to the destruction of natural environments. He himself don’t want the Myitsone project, he continued. 

In response to the Chinese embassy’s statement, three Kachin parties issued a three-point joint statement on January 14. The statement said they would join hands with the international community including China and the UN on the total shutdown of Myitsone Dam project and local peace-making process. Industrial zone projects will be implemented in Kachin State only after the genuine internal peace is achieved. 

Chairman of the Kachin Democracy Party Gumgrawng Awng Hkam said: “We have to express our views. Local people had raised some questions to us. The Chinese embassy issued some facts.”

Ko Tsa Ji, General Secretary of Kachin Social Development Network said: “The Chinese ambassadors and officials from the CPI company held talks with locals about the suspended Myitsone Dam Project every year. It is found that the Chinese embassy’s recent statement amounted to putting intense pressure on Myanmar.”

Before the Chinese embassy’s statement over Chinese Ambassador Mr. Hong Liang’s tour to Kachin State, State Counsellor Daw Aung San Suu Kyi arrived in Kachin State and attended the Kachin State Day ceremony. 

From January  8 to 10, State Counsellor Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and party visited Kachin State and attended the 71st Anniversary Kachin State Day. During her tour, Daw Aung San Suu  Kyi met with religious leaders and representatives from ethnic groups, at Palm Spring Hotel in Myintkyina on January 10. 

In meeting with them, State Counselor Daw Aung San Suu Kyi didn't give a specific answer on whether Myanmar will continue with the Myitsone dam project according to joint secretary of Kachin Baptist Church Rev.  Zae Khaung, according to a news report by the 7 Day News Agency. In that news, Rev. Zae Khaung explained that Daw Aung San Suu Kyi may implement Myitsone dam project.

After it was published, Chinese Embassy in Myanmar released  a statement that Chinese Ambassador to Myanmar Mr. Hong Liang visited Kachin State.

The news on Daw  Aung San Suu Kyi didn't give specific answer on whether Myanmar will continue Myitsone dam project and the time Chinese Embassy in Myanmar made a statement that Chinese Ambassador to Myanmar Mr. Hong Liang visited Kachin State is just a coincidence or it is published with purpose became a question among the public and severe criticisms appeared among public.

"The Myitsone dam project faced objections in the past and at present. The villagers that had to move t other places face hardships in their daily livehihoods. The present administration is one that receives majority of public support. In my opinion, they (the present administration) should handle this case decisively," said Lu Yar moved to Aung Myin Thar village from Myitsone Tanphe village.

The 7th anniversary of of the suspension of the dam project was held in Myitkyina, Kachin State on October 1, 2018. In that ceremony, people demanded that the government make a clear decision concerning the Myitsone dam project. It was attended by political leaders, writers, scholars and locals of 2000.

"It has been seven years that we've put on hold the Myitsone dam project. It was implemented by previous government and was put on hold after listening to the voices of the public. The present government is the one elected by the people. Therefore, concerning Myitsone dam project, it is time to make the decision to stop that Myitsone dam project. The people’s desire has been expressed since the time of President Thein Sein administration," said local Pastor Tuln.

At the ceremony, locals talked about losses of farmland and pastures due to the project and other hardships in their social and economic lives. At the same time, they talked about their desire of returning to their original villages and possess their belongings.

Kachin locals, social organizations, and the people made a statement on closure of Myitsone dam project and held demonstrations. Environmental experts also made researches and submitted to the government. But, in the nearly three years of current NLD administration, no decision can be made concerning Myitsone dam project.

If a dam was to be built on a river, the distance between each dam must be 60 miles or 100 kilometers. The five new dams going to be built on May Kha River is only 20 miles distance from each other. Therefore,if those dams were to built, the first thing we would suffer is the lack of oxygen in water. The water will be not retain its previous quality.  There will be impairments to the water quality. That condition may reach to the end of Ayeyawaddy and Chindwin River. Another thing is that the dams are close by to the Sagaing fault and an earthquake hits and the dams were to collapse, all the water retained in the seven dams will flood all the way until Sagaing and Mandalay hill. Another thing is that the Kachin people do not want the Myitsone dam project. It is the most important part because they believe that it is their place of prestige and culture. They want the region that had birthed their culture to remain as it is. If Myitsone dam project is to be implemented, their values and belief are to be destroyed or lost. Next thing is, if the dams are closed, there will be less water in lower regions. As a result, water transportation may see difficulties. Besides, there are alluvial soil in Ayeyawaddy delta in every year. The emerging of alluvial soil will disappear if the Myitsone dam project is implemented. As a result, cultivation on alluvial land will be destroyed. As a consequence, production of Ayeyawaddy delta region will decline. Another thing is if there is less water release from upper region, salt water may enter into Ayeyawaddy River. We expect the salt water to intrude into the river until well over Pyay. If that happens, cultivation in the Ayeyawaddy delta may be affected. The crop production of the Ayeyawaddy Region may decline severely. These things are sure to occur and that's why we are objecting Myitsone dam project," said Nyo Maung, environmental specialist.

Due to the Myitsone dam project, there will be about 4800 hectares of flood areas, 49 villages and nearly 18,000 people will be flood addled. Forests in those area may also see flooding, see decline in fish production, biodiversity will be reduced, ecosystems in the lower parts of Ayeyawaddy Region may be destroyed and the flow of water may be ruined. Ayeyawaddy Region, which produces 60 percent of Myanmar’s rice production, may face losses. Especially in 215 towns and 19443 villages as well as the livelihood of  37 million people living along the Ayeyawaddy delta region may face changes according to experts.

“No one can ignore that the project will cause environmental damage. Local and foreign experts have said that the Myitsone dam project should not be implemented because it can impact environmental as well as socio-economic lives. As for natural disasters, the biggest disaster will be the earthquake. That’s what the experts had exactly warned,” said Environmentalist Min Chit Naing.

The State Counsellor Daw Aung San Suu Kyi said during the election campaign held in Myitkyina Township, Kachin State, on October 2nd in 2015 that if  the NLD ascends to be the government, they would show the public the facts and the agreements between the previous administration and the respective companies in regards to the Myitsone dam project.

“Firstly, we are going to show the public what agreements between government and respective companies wrote in the contract. We don’t know what agreements were involved in the contract. It will be extremely irresponsible to agree to do things without first knowing what comes with the contract.. If the project were to be suspended, compensation must be paid in accordance with the contract as per business deals. We don’t know what kind and how much compensation as well as to what extent it will impact upon our country,” said Daw Aung Suu Kyi.

Despite the State Counsellor’s remarks on the dam project, no one had shown the contract of Myitsone dam project, which in turn leads to frustration from the people.

When the NLD formed the new government committee after winning the 2015 General Election, the Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi arrives in Myanmar and held a press conference jointly organized with the State Counsellor on April 5th of 2016.

During the press brief, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi answered queries raised by the media that it was very difficult to display the contract to public as she herself have yet to read it.

Pastor Tuu Lonn said, “Daw Aung San Suu Kyi said it herself that the contract will be revealed to people but that is yet to come true. Now is the time to be decisive.”

Chinese Ambassador to Myanmar Hong Liang and  Counsellor Wang Yi, together with 9 other members, visited Kachin State on June 3rd in 2016. During the tour, they said that they would like to resume the Myitsone dam project. They also urged the government to take suggestions from the public and to discuss with them. 

Lieu Zan, Director-General of the Department of International Economic Affairs from the Republic of China, part of the 11 member delegation, met with the Kachin State Government Committee and discuss three key points: 

1. If the dam project would be canceled, the compensation of US$ 800 million must be paid. 

2. If government would allow the project to resume, they would earn US$ 500 million every year in taxes on the dam project.

3. If the government does not abide by the above two points and were to suspend the project indefinitely, Myanmar must pay interest of US$50 million every year on behalf of the Chinese Companies’ loans.

Later, ex-President Htin Kyaw had formed the Commission for Reviewing and Securitizing Hydropower Projects along Ayeyawady River on August 12th in 2016 comprising with 20 members: five Union Ministers, experts from seven ministries, the attorney general, the Lower House deputy speaker, members of the Upper House, international relation committee, National Water Resources Committee and two experts from Myanmar Dams Association.

The Commission members went to Myitkyina Township, Kachin State and met with locals and CSOs. At the meeting, 18 CSOs including townselders and locals called for completely stop to the Myitsone dam project.

As for the Commission, they had reported their findings and reviews about the dam project to the President one year ago but government has yet to provide  clear explanations to the public.

People, CSOs and experts are feeling frustrated as Myitsone dam report can’t be shown to the public in detail.

“The reason why the Myitsone dam contract hasn’t been shown to the public depends on many issues facing the country. I think it is not easy not only to show Myitsone dam contract but also to deny it. We don’t know which way they are dealing with the Myitsone dam project. The next point is that Myitsone commission has not released the report on the end of Myitsone dam project. It is supposed that the result of the report was unsuitable for the implementation of Myitsone dam project. For that reason, Myitsone dam project contract can’t be shown to the public in detail,” Khun Jar of Kachin Peace Network.

If the government shows the report of the commission to the public, Myitsone dam project will reach its conclusion. The government is using delaying tactics as it wants it to remain unfinished, said Dr Tu Jar, Chairperson of Kachin Democracy Party.

“The government discussed with our political parties as to the report of the Myitsone dam project and with some local people as well. In this state, I think many more local people objected to the report. For that reason, I suppose that the government is holding up the Myitsone project,” said Dr Tu Jar.

If the ruling NLD government discontinues the Myitsone project, it will be fined US$ 800 million for breaching the contract. The international community is putting pressure on Myanmar over the Rakhine issue. China also plays a key role in the internal peace process of Myanmar. It gives the government a political headache.

Rakhine conflict made the start with ARSA terrorists’ synchronized attack on 30 police outposts and a Tatmadaw security outpost in Maungdaw border on August 25 in 2017. Changes in Myanmar political situations occurred alongside Rakhine issue. The ARSA attack killed a Tatmadawman, 10 police and a deputy staff officer of immigration and injured many. 

Bengali terrorists intentionally launched well-organized synchronized attacks on Maungdaw, a westerly town of Myanmar. It encroached upon Myanmar’s sovereignty. No one primarily noticed this situation. Later the terrorists proclaimed themselves as ARSA and carried out extensive terrorist attacks. They launched well-organized synchronized attacks from all angles in the unguarded moment. 

The ARSA terrorists’ attack coincided with the release of the final report of Rakhine issue of Kofi Annan-led commission. With the well-organized synchronized attacks, Bengali issue appeared as a time bomb across the international community. 

The Western countries are putting pressure on those who are attempting to encroach the sovereignty of Myanmar with regard to Rakhine issue. Under the pretext of human rights at the Security Council of the United Nations, closed door meetings were held. The Western group led by Britain criticized Myanmar government and Tatmadaw (defence services). 

With regard to Bengali issue, neighbours China and India supported Myanmar, but Britain, the US and the EU strongly criticized Myanmar and put pressure on. Britain, the US and the EU upheld Bengali issue. 

The UN Security Council paid attention to Bengali issue and discussed it. Bengali issue became at the top of the agenda at the UN Security Council. The UNSC initially attempted to send the Independent International Fact-Finding Mission on Myanmar to Rakhine State and increased gradual pressure on Myanmar. The Western group designed R2P plan that UN security forces could enter Myanmar.

The UN’s functions on Bengali issue in Myanmar in 2018 became uneven. Yanghee Lee, special rapporteur on Myanmar, at the ICC on June 27 demanded to investigate and prosecute allegations of crimes against humanity and war crimes.

On August 27 in 2018, the Independent International Fact-Finding Mission on Myanmar issued a report, saying Tatmadaw leaders were responsible for carrying out military operations that could forcibly drive out Bengali Muslims into Bangladesh. They should be handed over to be prosecuted. As regards, China and Russia objected at the Myanmar affairs seminar held at the UNSC.

On November 16, the third committee of the UN General Assembly approved the resolve to denounce Myanmar as human right violations and demanded to carry out independent investigation into the violations of human rights and Bengali issue. Moreover, the committee demanded that those manipulating the issues should be accountable. 

Seven countries including Myanmar, China and Russia voted against the resolution of the UN. 26 countries including Japan abstained. On December 22, the 73rd United Nations General Assembly approved the resolution with the majority of supporting votes. Regarding the resolve of the UNGA, 136 voted in favour, 8 against and 22 abstained. Most countries including Britain and the US voted in favour. Russia, China, Belarus, Myanmar, Cambodia, Lao, Vietnam and Philippines voted against. 

With regard to the Rakhine issue, China always stands by Myanmar, raising an objection to the one-sided decisions of the international community and the UN.  

Moreover, China plays a major role in Myanmar's peace efforts to end the long-lasting civil war.   Particularly as China is coordinating with the Federal Political Negotiation and Consultative Committee (FPNCC) formed with seven northern ethnic armed groups that have yet to sign the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) so that they can pursue the NCA route. 

A significant example is that with Chinese negotiations, ethnic leaders from FNPCC attended the second and third rounds of the 21st Century Panglong Conference. 

During May last year, Mr. Sun Guoxiang, Special Envoy for Asian Affairs of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China, met northern ethnic armed force leaders in Kunming and urged them to attend the conference. 

Before the third round of the peace conference, Mr. Sun Guoxiang also met with State Counsellor Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and Commander-in-Chief of Defence Services Senior General Min Aung Hlaing and discussed Myanmar's peace process. In early July last year, the government invited the seven ethnic armed groups to attend the third round of the 21st Century Panglong Conference through the Chinese embassy.   

On July 10, ahead of the third conference, representatives from the seven northern ethnic armed groups arrived in Nay Pyi Taw by air, received by the officials from the Peace Commission. 

On July 11, 2018, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing met United Wa State Army chairman U Pauk Yu Yi, Kachin Independence Organization vice chairman (2) S Guan Maw, National Democratic Alliance Army vice chairman U San Pae and Shan State Progressive Party chairman U Hse Htin.  

Following the meeting, the Office of the Commander-in-Chief of Defence Services issued a statement saying that the discussion included the signing of the NCA and matters related to the promotion of the peace process through dialogue. 

Likewise, Deputy Commander-in-Chief of Defence Services Commander-in-Chief (Army) Vice-Senior General Soe Win met with Ta'ang National Liberation Army, Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army and Arakan Army. Then, a press release was issued with the discussion focused on the NCA, mutual trust building and peace endeavours. 

On July 12, State Counsellor Daw Aung San Suu Kyi also received UWSA vice chairman U Kyauk Kaw Am, SSPP chairman U Hse Htin, NDAA vice chairman U San Pae, KIO vice chairman (2) S Guan Maw, Tar Khu Lan from TNLA, U Yan Win Kyone from MNDAA and U Nyo Tun Aung from AA.  

Such situations indicate the chance for China to be able to participate in Myanmar's peace process. China has also voiced it will provide ardent support for Myanmar's peace process.  

Currently, China is cushioning Myanmar against international and UN pressure on the Bengali issue as well as playing a major role in the internal peace efforts. In this regard, NLD will not find it easy to totally reject China's move to implement the Myitsone project.   

In other ways, the mutual relations may be harmed if China serves self-interest under such circumstances. If the NLD government terminates the project as demanded by the people, political analysts will be wondering what can happen to the role of China in international pressure and the internal peace process.  

Kachin State Democracy Party chairman Dr Tu Ja expressed his belief that China would not neglect Myanmar because of the Myitsone project and would continue its support for the peace process.  

"I doubt that China will ruin their relationship with us over Myitsone. As far as my analysis goes, the Chinese government (central), they also have this idea in their heads that this whole thing might not work out at all and that they do not have a lot of hope on it. But they are testing out whether it can happen. If it doesn't work out, China will not abandon us but maintain their relationship with us, especially getting deeply involved in achieving peace. I believe in China and I don't think China will use the Myitsone as a leveraging tool to force us to do what they want," said Dr. Tuja.

Chairman of the Kachin Democratic Party Dr. Gwan Aung Kham said," During U Thein Sein's administration, Myitsone was suspended temporarily and it seemed like China didn't really had hope for that issue. Now, amidst the international pressure and the need for internal peace, it is plain to see that the current government require the help of the Chinese. But on the other hand if we were to allow Myitsone and follow suit to the whims of the Chinese, there may possibly huge challenges that will have to be solved in political, social and economic sectors. In terms of achieving peace, we definitely have to rely on China although it should be a scene where it includes other international influences. The other thing is that if we could make a stage where the current government, the military and all involved parties can be transparent and frank, we might not need to rely on anyone and settle this matter ourselves. I think that if we continue to rely solely on China during this period where international pressure is applied to us, there definitely will be subsequent issues to deal with."

The NLD's Deputy Chair (2) and Chief Minister of Mandalay Region Dr. Zaw Myint Maung had, in response to a question by a journalist from the Golden Triangle media in Tachileik on January 18, that the NLD will not act upon a decision that will go against the wishes of the people.

"The party simply looks out for the interests of the public and stands with the people. It has been built upon that policy and it is still now. We make the people the priority and work for their benefit. We have formed a commission to review the Myitsone project as previously we weren't privy to information such as the contract. The comission is near done with their assessment and we will know the answer soon. I'm sure you have heard what Daw Aung San Suu Kyi said on her Myitkyina trip and no matter what rumors arise, the NLD stands with the people," said Dr. Zaw Myint Maung.

It is intriguing, according to Dr.Zaw Myint Maung's claims that the NLD stands with the people, whether the Myistone Dam Project will be completely halted as per the wishes of the people. It is worth keeping an careful eye whether China will stop their assistance to us or continue to provide help in lieu of decades of "Pauk Phaw" relationship between the two if the government were to scrap Myitsone.

Political Analyst Dr. Yan Myo Thein said,"I think there is an opportunity to achieve the best possible result after negotiations between the two governments and companies involved. From that point, it is needed to form a road map on how to completely close the book on Myitsone Hydropower project. If that could be achieved, Myanmar-China relationship will not be damaged. I think, whether it is the current government or a new form of government after 2020 elections, to pour effort into holding negotiations in order to create a situation where it is  a win-win situation for all that will especially not heavily impact the current predicament of having to rely on China's veto power against international pressure.